Category Archives: 08 Proliferation

2007 Threat #08 Proliferation Top Cited Authors

Author (# of articles written*, # of times cited*)

Robert L. Jervis (95, 2122)
Department of Political Science
Mail Code: 3347
Columbia University
2960 Broadway
New York, NY 10027-6900

Michael E. Smith (206, 1548)
Robinson College of Business
Georgia State University
P.O. Box 3965
Atlanta, GA 30302-3965

Partha Chatterjee (65, 1186)
Department of Anthropology
Mail Code: 5538
Columbia University
2960 Broadway
New York, NY 10027-6900

Graham T. Allison Jr. (21, 788)
JFK School of Government
L368
Harvard University
79 J F Kennedy St
Cambridge MA 02138

William Walker (92, 450)
School of International Relations
University of St. Andrews
College Gate
St Andrews, Fife KY16 9AJ, UK

Richard L. Russell (67, 414)
National Defense University
Near East and South Asia Center for Strategic Studies
Fort Lesley J. McNair
Washington, DC 20319-5066

Scott D. Sagan (36, 338)
Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation
202E Encina Hall
Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6165

Chaim Braun (102, 286)
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Encina Hall
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

Selig S. Harrison (35, 286)
Center for International Policy
Suite 801
1717 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20036

Joachim Krause (155, 275)
Institute for Security Studies
Westring 400
University of Kiel
24098 Kiel GERMANY

Thomas Graham Jr. (40, 217)
Cypress Fund for Peace and Security
1601 Connecticut Avenue
Suite 200
Washington, DC 20009

Erik Gartzke (29, 202)
Department of Political Science
International Affairs Building
Rm. 1329
420 W. 118th. St.
New York, NY 10027

Carol Kessler (50, 178)
Center for Global Security
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
1100 Dexter Avenue North
Suite 400
Seattle (WA 98109-3598

Patrick M. Morgan (48, 153)
Department of Political Science
5269 Social Sciences Plaza B
University of California
Irvine, CA 92697-5100

Richard L. Garwin (58, 149)
Thomas J. Watson Research Center
IBM Corp.
P.O. Box 218
Yorktown Heights, NY 10598

Mark Fitzpatrick (33, 146)
The International Institute for Strategic Studies – US
1850 K Street NW
Suite 300
Washington, DC 20006

Mohan Malik (35, 142)
Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies
2058 Maluhia Road
Honolulu, HI 96815

Stephen P. Rosen (16, 139)
Department of Government and International Studies
Harvard University
CGIS Knafel Bldg.
1737 Cambridge St
Cambridge, MA 02138

Kurt M. Campbell (31, 131)
Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K St. NW
Washington, DC 20006

Alexei Arbatov (8, 119)
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Tverskaya 16/2
125009, Moscow RUSSIA

Daniel Byman (28, 107)
Center for Peace and Security Studies
School of Foreign Service
Georgetown University
3600 N St NW
Washington, DC 20057

Sverre Lodgaard (46, 102)
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
C.J. Hambros plass 2D
Pb 8159 Dep, 0033
Oslo, NORWAY

Mark N. Katz (56, 101)
Department of Public & International Affairs
George Mason University
4400 University Drive
Fairfax, VA 22030

Victor D. Cha (31, 89)
Edmund Walsh School of Foreign Service
Georgetown University
37th & O St. NW
Washington, DC 20057

Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky (25, 86)
Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
2575 Sand Hill Rd
Menlo Park, CA 94025

Curtis H. Martin (26, 69)
Political Science Department
Merrimack College
315 Turnpike Street
North Andover, MA 01845

Gabrielle Hecht (18, 53)
Department of History
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109

Michael Wesley (12, 49)
Griffith Asia Institute
Level 1, Building N50
Nathan campus
Griffith University
170 Kessels Road
Nathan, Qld 4111 AUSTRALIA

James J. Wirtz (46, 39)
Department of National Security Affairs
Naval Postgraduate School
1 University Circle
Monterey, CA 93943

Michael Simon (3, 36)
International Relations Branch
SPARTA, Inc.
1911 Fort Myer Dr
Arlington, VA 22209
Arlington, VA

Andrei A. Kokoshin (1, 35)
School of World Politics
Moscow State University
Room 235,
Uchebniy Korpus 2
Leninskiye Gory, Moscow, 119899
RUSSIA

Joseph F. Pilat (17, 33)
Nonproliferation and International Security
Los Alamos National Laboratory
P.O. Box 1663
Los Alamos, NM 87545

Robert M. Hathaway (14, 32)
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center
One Woodrow Wilson Plaza
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW
Washington, DC 20004-3027

  • Note that this is the number of articles indexed in the Social SciSearch database (not a universal count of all the author’s writings.

2007 Threat #08 Proliferation Top Books

Earth Threat #8: Proliferation

A Listmania! list by Robert David STEELE Vivas (Oakton, VA United States)
(TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)
The list author says: “There are ten threats, twelve policies, and eight players other than the EU and USA that matter if we are to get a grip on our future. Each of these 30 topics is addressed at www.earth-intelligence.net, and in Amazon discussion groups being created to bring together authors and readers to form a global information sharing network that will be superior to what secret intelligence and secret government bureaucracies can put together. This is how we save Humanity and our Earth–by taking back the power over relevant information and the policies that have here-to-fore been dominated by special interests instead of ourselves, the taxpayers and end-users.”
Diet for a Poisoned Planet: How to Choose Safe Foods for You and Your Family - The Twenty-first Century Edition
1.  Diet for a Poisoned Planet: How to Choose Safe Foods for You and Your Family – The Twenty-first Century Edition by David Steinman
The list author says:
“I will address toxins and what Wal-Mart is doing the sea off Chile in Earth Threat #3: Ecology, but for now want to make the point that the proliferation of chlorine, mercury, salmonella, ando other toxins is vastly more dangerous to all of us than nuclear or even small arms proliferation.  See Frances Lappe Moore’s books for the positive.”
$14.00   Used & New from: $0.06
4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
Pandora's Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a New Environmental Strategy
2.  Pandora’s Poison: Chlorine, Health, and a New Environmental Strategy by Joe Thornton
The list author says:
“One of the top books I have ever read in terms of alerting me to the insanity of our existing legal industrial processes.”
$62.50   Used & New from: $0.01
3.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (22 customer reviews)
Merchant of Death: Money, Guns, Planes, and the Man Who Makes War Possible
3.  Merchant of Death: Money, Guns, Planes, and the Man Who Makes War Possible by Douglas Farah
The list author says:
“See also the DVD Lord of War.”
$17.20   Used & New from: $0.01
3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (25 customer reviews)
Stemming the lethal trade in small arms and light weapons.: An article from: Issues in Science and Technology
4.  Stemming the lethal trade in small arms and light weapons.: An article from: Issues in Science and Technology by Michael T. Klare
The list author says:
“I am very glad to see Amazon expanding into journal articles.  Stemming small arms is one reason the UN now realizes it needs to do intelligence across an entire region, including counter-intelligence in the West against governments that are all too willing to channel small arms to small wars.”
$5.95
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Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network
5.  Shopping for Bombs: Nuclear Proliferation, Global Insecurity, and the Rise and Fall of the A.Q. Khan Network by Gordon Corera
The list author says:
“THE top book in the nuclear proliferation domain.  I ranked the first four books above this one to make the points you see for each of those four.”
$23.99   Used & New from: $0.69
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (17 customer reviews)
Endangered Species: How We Can Avoid Mass Destruction and Build a Lasting Peace
6.  Endangered Species: How We Can Avoid Mass Destruction and Build a Lasting Peace by Stephen Michael Younger
The list author says:
“Certainly worth considering carefully.  I know how to do this–we simply need to get rid of the corruption and the politicians and move to self-governance at the micro and macro leveles.  See www.earth-intelligence.net for a sense of what I am trying to build that will allow all of you to do exactly that.”
Used & New from: $0.01
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
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Deterring America: Rogue States and the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
7.  Deterring America: Rogue States and the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction by Derek Delbert Smith
The list author says:
“Most nations need nuclear power for their grid because USA has not developed alternative sources of massive amounts of energy.  We are still on the old grid that loses 50 percent of the power on the way from the generators to the end users.  Our behavior is giving others cause to both go nuclear and to buy submarines (Venezuela), as well as to use Improvised Explosive Devices (IED).”
$31.71   Used & New from: $0.01
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
21st Century Essential NBC Reference Series: Dirty Bombs and Radiation Threats, Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Preparedness, Radiation Terrorism ... Destruction WMD, First Responder Ringbound)
8.  21st Century Essential NBC Reference Series: Dirty Bombs and Radiation Threats, Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) Preparedness, Radiation Terrorism … Destruction WMD, First Responder Ringbound) by Department of Defense
The list author says:
“Really solid good stuff.”
$29.95
21st Century Bioterrorism and Other Threats: U.S. Army Handbook on Medical Management of Radiological Casualties, Practical Emergency Information about Nuclear Weapons, Dirty Radioactive Bombs, Accidental Releases, and other Radiation Contamination Threats
9.  21st Century Bioterrorism and Other Threats: U.S. Army Handbook on Medical Management of Radiological Casualties, Practical Emergency Information about Nuclear Weapons, Dirty Radioactive Bombs, Accidental Releases, and other Radiation Contamination Threats by Department of Defense
The list author says:
“Really solid good stuff.”
$29.95
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
A World Destroyed: Hiroshima and Its Legacies
10.  A World Destroyed: Hiroshima and Its Legacies by Martin J. Sherwin
The list author says:
“The Japanese have NOT forgotten.  Nor have I forgotten their looting and death marches and torture of prisoners that the USA deliberately “forgave” in the final peace treaty.  Only China is free to demand reparations and that day will come.  America needs a Truth and Reconciliation Commission going back 75 years if not all 200+.”
$26.49   Used & New from: $2.96
2.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
Nuclear Proliferation: Risk and Responsibility (Triangle Papers)
11.  Nuclear Proliferation: Risk and Responsibility (Triangle Papers) by Graham Allison
The list author says:
“Allison shines on this topic, and was a key person in getting the Senate to understand that we have to help Russia recover and safely store its stuff.  There is a graveyard of Russian nuclear submarines seeping radiation into the ocean in the north, and there is at least one Russian reactor ready to blow that will make Chernobyl look like a pimple.”
$15.00   Used & New from: $8.20
Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control
12.  Containing Missile Proliferation: Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control by Dinshaw Mistry
The list author says:
“Top of the line conventional wisdom.  wrong answer.  See listss on Earth Threat #1: Poverty and Earth Policies #’s 1 (Agriculture), 4 (Education), 5 (Energy), 6 (Family), 11 (Society), and 12 (Water).”
$29.95   Used & New from: $15.99
Dealing with the Threat of Cruise Missiles (Adelphi series)
13.  Dealing with the Threat of Cruise Missiles (Adelphi series) by Dennis M. Gormley
The list author says:
“Cruise missiles are over-rated.  They take 6-7 hours to hit land-locked targets such as Bin Laden in Afghanistan, which is why a) we missed–the Pakistanis warned him and b) he made $10 million from the Chinese from selling them one of the unexploded missiles.”
$33.10   Used & New from: $1.99
Impossible Allies: Nuclear India, United States, and the Global Order
14.  Impossible Allies: Nuclear India, United States, and the Global Order by C. Raja Mohan
The list author says:
“I like and trust India more than Pakistan, but both of them, as well as North Korea and Israel, need to be helped to address their energy, water, and conflict challenges without nuclear devices that simply mis-direct funds better used waging peace.”
Used & New from: $888.88
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Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in The21st Century (<I>International Security</I> Readers)
15.  Going Nuclear: Nuclear Proliferation and International Security in The21st Century (International Security Readers) by Michael E. Brown
The list author says:
“Basic guide.”
$29.00   Used & New from: $13.44
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
The Making of the Indian Atomic Bomb: Science, Secrecy and the Postcolonial State (Postcolonial Encounters)
16.  The Making of the Indian Atomic Bomb: Science, Secrecy and the Postcolonial State (Postcolonial Encounters) by Itty Abraham
The list author says:
“Superb case study.”
Used & New from: $6.00
3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
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The Nuclear Imperative: A Critical Look at the Approaching Energy Crisis (Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality)
17.  The Nuclear Imperative: A Critical Look at the Approaching Energy Crisis (Topics in Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality) by Jeff W. Eerkens
The list author says:
“One viewpoint, must be considered and then addressed with alternative energies that are now reaching price point as well as break-throughs (hydrogen is portable, a new closed cycle generator that runs on water is being manufactured, wind and solar power are now best possible alternatives for localized power generation.”
$115.00   Used & New from: $97.24
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
The Legality of Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons: A Guide to the Historic Opinion of the International Court of Justice Foreword by Phon van den ... Arms) (Recht und Zukunftsverantwortung)
18.  The Legality of Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons: A Guide to the Historic Opinion of the International Court of Justice Foreword by Phon van den … Arms) (Recht und Zukunftsverantwortung) by John Burroughs
The list author says:
“Excellent context.  I continueto be amazed at how many Americans feel so very strongly that we should be held accountable by an international court we helped create, while also being oblivious of the war crimes being done in our name.”
Used & New from: $1.82
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Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century (Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies)
19.  Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East: Directions and Policy Options in the New Century (Initiatives in Strategic Studies: Issues and Policies) by James A. Russell
The list author says:
“Useful regional study–don’t forget small arms, land mines, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), the latter now proliferating faster that the US can build armor.”
$85.00   Used & New from: $70.00
Smuggling Armageddon: The Nuclear Black Market in the Former Soviet Union and Europe
20.  Smuggling Armageddon: The Nuclear Black Market in the Former Soviet Union and Europe by Rensselaer W. Lee
The list author says:
“An eye opener.  Troops selling the depleted uranium armor plating from their tanks, among many other outlets.  See “Osama’s Revenge” by Paul Williams on Soviet nuclear suitcases disappearing.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
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Best of Intentions: America's Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation
21.  Best of Intentions: America’s Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation by Henry D. Sokolski
The list author says:
“Good.”
$27.79   Used & New from: $0.01
4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict
22.  Nuclear Proliferation and the Future of Conflict by Martin Van Creveld
The list author says:
“Dated but by one of the most brilliant military theorists of all time.  Right up there with Colin Gray, Liddell-Hart, and Sun Tzu (and here in America, Steve Metz).”
Used & New from: $3.57
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Lethal Frontiers: A Soviet View of Nuclear Strategy, Weapons, and Negotiations
23.  Lethal Frontiers: A Soviet View of Nuclear Strategy, Weapons, and Negotiations by Alekse? Georgievich Arbatov
The list author says:
“Excellent alternative perspective we need to understand, as the North Koreans have I believe similar views.”
$108.95   Used & New from: $3.00
The Proliferation Of Rights: Moral Progress Or Empty Rhetoric?
24.  The Proliferation Of Rights: Moral Progress Or Empty Rhetoric? by Carl Wellman
The list author says:
“I love this book–THIS is what we should be porliferating: human rights, education, and opportunity to create infinite wealth.”
Used & New from: $11.70
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Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy
25.  Combating Proliferation: Strategic Intelligence and Security Policy by Jason D. Ellis
The list author says:
“Worth a look.”
$52.00   Used & New from: $12.50
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
Chemical and Biological Weapons: A Study of Proliferation
26.  Chemical and Biological Weapons: A Study of Proliferation by Edward M. Spiers
The list author says:
“One of the top books in the field.”
$110.69   Used & New from: $14.95
Caging The Genies: A Workable Solution For Nuclear, Chemical, And Biological Weapons
27.  Caging The Genies: A Workable Solution For Nuclear, Chemical, And Biological Weapons by Stansfield Turner
The list author says:
“I admire Turner even if he did screw up the CIA.  He is a thoughtful mature individual, and along with General Odom, among a hand-ful of people I would call on to help unscrew US Intelligence.”
$34.00   Used & New from: $0.01
The Evolution of Biological Disarmament (Sipri Chemical & Biological Warfare Studies)
28.  The Evolution of Biological Disarmament (Sipri Chemical & Biological Warfare Studies) by Nicholas Roger Alan Sims
The list author says:
“Worth careful study.”
$58.72   Used & New from: $12.85
The Unscom Saga: Chemical and Biological Weapons Non-Proliferation (Global Issues Series)
29.  The Unscom Saga: Chemical and Biological Weapons Non-Proliferation (Global Issues Series) by Graham S. Pearson
The list author says:
“Depressing.”
$157.47   Used & New from: $4.80
International Handbook on Chemical Weapons Proliferation
30.  International Handbook on Chemical Weapons Proliferation by G. M. Burck
The list author says:
“Basic reference.  What most do not realize is that these days bio-chem weapons can be made in the kitchen sink from easily bought ingredients.”
Used & New from: $25.97
1.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
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Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, and Missile Proliferation Sanctions: Selected Current Law
31.  Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, and Missile Proliferation Sanctions: Selected Current Law by Dianne E. Rennack
The list author says:
“Law does not really work in part because nobody does proper supply chain analysis and control, but worth considering.”
$35.00   Used & New from: $23.17
Bio Warfare in 21st Century
32.  Bio Warfare in 21st Century by Malcolm Dando
The list author says:
“Be very afraid.”
Used & New from: $4.50
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
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2007 Threat #08 Proliferation Top Centers

EIN Starting Points/Rank

Center for Nonprolilferation Studiesexternal link
Monterey Institute of International Studies – Information and analysis to combat the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Includes monthly analysis of WMD export control issues, nonproliferation treaties, documents, organizations and regimes, and the most comprehensive open source data resources in the world on CBRN weapons & missile proliferation developments. 1

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – Proliferation News & Resourcesexternal link
Comprehensive site including Country Resources on Iran, Korea, Russia and others. Also provides in-depth background on weapons systems and a global proliferation status map, with separate maps on nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Latest proliferation news. 2

Export Controlexternal link
The EXBS program is a U.S. Government interagency program, managed by the Department of State’s Bureau of Nonproliferation, designed to help prevent proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, their missile delivery systems, conventional weapons, and related items by assisting foreign governments to establish and implement effective export control systems that meet international standards. 3

Loose Nukesexternal link
Based on PBS Frontline program of the same name. Investigation of nuclear smuggling, includes maps, timeline of smuggling incidents and interviews with experts. Also shows nuclear status of several nations, information on Russia’s nuclear complex and readings. 4

Federation of American Scientistsexternal link
Site includes detailed information and news on Nuclear Weapons in the 21st century, to include dirty bombs, dangers of proliferation by state, and next generation nuclear weapons. Also includes Biological and Chemical Weapons information. 5

Institute for Science and International Securityexternal link
ISIS is a non-profit, non-partisan institution dedicated to informing the public about science and policy issues affecting international security. Its efforts focus on stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, bringing about greater transparency of nuclear activities worldwide, and achieving deep reductions in nuclear arsenals. ISIS’s projects integrate technical, scientific, and policy research in order to build a sound foundation for a wide variety of efforts to reduce the threat posed by nuclear weapons to U.S. and international security. 6

Missile Technology Control Regimeexternal link
An informal and voluntary association of countries which share the goals of non-proliferation of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction, and which seek to coordinate national export licensing efforts aimed at preventing their proliferation. The MTCR was originally established in 1987 by Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Since that time, the number of MTCR partners has increased to a total of thirty-four countries, all of which have equal standing within the Regime. 7

Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weaponsexternal link
The mission is to implement the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention in order to achieve the OPCW’s vision of a world free of chemical weapons, and a world in which cooperation in the peaceful uses of chemistry is fostered. The ultimate aim is to contribute to international security and stability, general and complete disarmament, and global economic development. 8

Sunshine Projectexternal link
An international non-profit organization with offices in Hamburg, Germany and Austin, Texas, working against the hostile use of biotechnology in the post-Cold War era. The Project researches and publishes to strengthen the global consensus against biological warfare and to ensure that international treaties effectively prevent development and use of biological weapons. 9

Small Arms Surveyexternal link
The Small Arms Survey serves to monitor national and international (governmental and ngo) initiatives, and acts as a clearing house for the dissemination of best practices in the field. The legal and the illicit markets for small arms and light weapons-domestic as well as international-are linked by virtue of the fact that weapons can be diverted from the legal into the illicit realm. Diversion includes government supplies to armed non-state groups, violation of arms embargoes, violations of end-user agreements, ant trade, diversion from government or authorized private stockpiles, and battlefield seizures and war booty. Information on illicit cross-border transfers is generally hard to come by. The Small Arms Survey has based its analysis of illicit transfers on seizure data from customs, police, and military as well as on news, NGO, and UN reports. 10

Space Security Projectexternal link
Henry L. Stimpson Center – Includes what’s new, code of conduct for outer space, space debris status, editorials on weaponization of space, and space programs to watch. 11

International Campaign to Ban Landminesexternal link
A network of more than 1,400 NGO’s in 90 countries working for a global ban on landmines. Site includes news, links, a yearly landmine report and a calendar of upcoming events. 12

North Korea Special Collectionexternal link
Center for Nonproliferation Studies – Provides overview, news, and analysis of North Korea’s nuclear and missile development. Also has satellite photos of Yongbyon nuclear complex. 13

IAEA and Iranexternal link
IAEA site focused on Iran. Provides latest briefings/timelines, documents and reports, and background and stories on Iranian nuclear program development. 14

Pakistan-Facts.comexternal link
Site is run by a diverse group of individuals from across the world, sharing common concerns regarding Pakistan’s continued support for terrorism and nuclear proliferation. The Nuclear Proliferation section includes the latest articles on Pakistani nuclear issues, special reports, and feedback from readers. 15

2007 Threat #08 Proliferation Forecast

PDF:  08 Proliferation

THREAT:  Proliferation

Proliferation once referred to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) of 1970, an agreement of the nuclear haves and most have-nots that things should stay just like that. However, there were two other important aspects to NPT – the Treaty overtly agreed that this was an interim arrangement directed towards eventual total nuclear disarmament, and that technologies for peaceful use of nuclear energy were not only permitted but were to be cooperatively shared. The haves were the five nuclear-weapon states defined in the NPT, China, France, Russia, UK, USA, who happened to be also the Big-Five of the Security Council. But disarmament 30 years later is just as distant; the nuclear-weapon states continue to refurbish and maintain nuclear arsenals and the principle of proliferating nuclear technology without the chapters on weaponizing that technology has proven a noble and naïve ideal. During NPT and contrary to it, South Africa built, tested and later disassembled nuclear weapons and several countries, including Brazil and Libya, toyed with the capability and abandoned it. Today, it is an open secret that Israel has nuclear weapons from an unknown source and in an unknown state of readiness, and India and Pakistan have proven their nuclear capability – all contrary to NPT. Several other countries are regarded as nuclear-capable states – Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Japan — they have everything needed to produce nuclear weapons except the political will. Of headline current interest is the controversy over whether Iran and DPR Korea have weapons capability.

This situation coincides with the view that “clean, green” nuclear energy is an obvious fix for the environmental disaster-in-waiting caused by the burning of fossil fuels. Wider use of nuclear technologies for energy raises the spectre of proliferation in a broader sense – proliferation of spent and part-spent radioactive byproducts from the nuclear fuel cycle. Although the 30-year old Australian synroc technology now seems to be a secure and irreversible means for the safe sequestration of spent fuels, a thousand more nuclear flowers blooming throughout the world offers an obvious challenge for non-proliferation efforts. Highly accurate auditing of materials in and materials out is one measure but in recent years some audits have found a useful quantity of weapons-grade material missing … or a rounding error in the audit; no-one knows for sure. A thousand rounding errors world-wide magnify the chance of usable quantities of weaponisable materials changing hands without trace.

For these several reasons, the NPT principles have obvious practical shortcomings and UN Security Council Resolution 1540 was promulgated in 2004 to address these. The core articles …

Affirming that prevention of proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons should not hamper international cooperation in materials, equipment and technology for peaceful purposes while goals of peaceful utilization should not be used as a cover for proliferation;

Decides that all States shall refrain from providing any form of support to non-State actors that attempt to develop, acquire, manufacture, possess, transport, transfer or use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and their means of delivery;
… are in very plain language and clearly more street-wise than NPT. Importantly, this is an instrument under Chapter VII of the UN Charter hence enforceable under the UN’s ultimate powers of coercion and enforcement. Also, the subject suddenly includes chemical and biological materials, and it importantly forbids proliferation into the hands of non-State actors. Although the only peaceful uses for these substances is research into antidotes to their non-peaceful uses, the letter of the resolution would allow any state to share or develop manufacturing technologies for these “peaceful purposes”. Also, any country could build manufacturing capability (for “peaceful purposes”) because the varying shelf-life of CB substances and pathogens requires periodic replenishment. So Resolution 1540 is unfortunately, like the NPT, little more than a pious wish and, in the absence of an outright universal ban on possession of these substances, it does little to curtail de facto proliferation.

As the world approaches a cycle where non-State actors are an equal or greater threat to industrialized nations than conventional enemies, proliferation assumes new nuances. The fear of CBR(N) WMD is a force multiplier in asymmetric tactics and immense costs are brought upon any nation protecting itself against the threat of a CBR incident. For the present, a multi-megaton air-burst bomb is unlikely, but a taxi loaded with 10 kilos of highly radioactive waste blown up in Time Square (or Trafalgar Square) would have a cumulative cost almost as great.

Near-Term:

Pious hopes are little protection against bad actors State or non-State of any ethnicity, politics or religion. The technologies and materials that were the subject of proliferation measures are already proliferated widely enough to now get anywhere else with the right theft, bribe, or accident. Although a CB attack by non-State bad actors is possible rather than probable, the consequences are such that it is an acute hazard and should be treated as such. It is unlikely that civil and military authorities in the US have sufficient planning in place to meet this hazard.

Mid-Term:

Pandora’s box is open. Getting the woes and pestilence back in the box will be very difficult – but that simply translates as very expensive. It is do-able and expensive. Security intelligence agencies throughout the world will believe they have some grasp on where hazardous technology, know-how and materials are and where they are moving, but the slight embarrassment on the Iraq assessment blunts confidence in this somewhat. Nothing short of a world effort, underpinned by instruments in the tradition of NPT and Resolution 1540, is urgently needed to start an exhaustive Inventory of CBRN materials throughout the world to last microgram. Obviously an agency similar to IAEA with expertise and powers across the range of CBRN would be key to that project.

Long-Term:

Nuclear-generated power does seem to have long-term possibilities. If current experimental work in fusion by the ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) project is successful this may prove to be spectacularly so – also, there will be none of the waste products produced in fission technologies and the technology will not lend itself to use by non-State actors. That may bring a time when chemical and biological agents are the only possible agents of WMD threat. But the nature of the world will be much determined by political wisdom displayed in the next five years and how successful any inventory and roundup of CBR material has been. A new concern may come from substantial work in recent years on non-lethal weapons. This may produce a new era of proliferation of simple, easily deployed debilitating economically crippling weaponry — Weapons of Mass Discomfort.