Category Archives: 05 Civil War

2007 Threat #05 Civil War Top Cited Authors

Published Authors as of July 2007 (Articles/Citations)

Doug McAdam 27 1951
Sociology Department,
Bldg. 120 Room 138,
Stanford University,
Stanford, California 94305-2047

Paul Collier 139 1421
Centre for the Study of African Economies,
Department of Economics,
University of Oxford
Wellington Square,
Oxford OX1 2JD, UK

John D. McCarthy 44 1367
Sociology and Crime, Law & Justice,
The Pennsylvania State University,
211 Oswald Tower,
University Park, PA 16802-6207

Nils Petter Gleditsch 184 450
Centre for the Study of Civil War,
International Peace Research Institute,
Hausmanns gate 7,
NO-0186 Oslo, Norway

Richard O. Snyder 53 430
Department of Political Science,
Brown University,
Providence, RI 02912

Seth G. Jones 25 263
RAND Corp.,
1200 South Hayes St.,
Arlington, VA 22202-5050

Patrick M. Regan 48 208
Department of Political Science,
Binghamton University,
PO Box 6000,
Binghamton, NY 13902-6000

Michael L. Ross 9 185
Department of Political Science,
BOX 951472, 4289 Bunche,
University of California,
Los Angeles, CA 90095

Macartan Humphreys 77 180
Department of Political Science,
701 IAB, Columbia University,
2960 Broadway
New York, NY 10027-6900

John Mackinlay 12 136
Department of War Studies,
King’s College,
London, Strand,
London WC2R 2LS UK

Neil J. Mitchell 30 132
Department of Political Science,
University of New Mexico,
MSC05 3070, 1
University of New Mexico,
Albuquerque NM 87131-0001

Mark T. Berger 43 121
Department of Defense Analysis,
Naval Postgraduate School,
1 University Circle
Monterey, CA 93943

Nicholas Sambanis 11 118
Department of Political Science, Yale University,
PO BOX 208301,
New Haven, CT 06511-8932

Steven Metz 24 83
Strategic Studies Institute,
United States Army War College,
122 Forbes Ave.,
Carlisle, PA 17013-5244

Jennifer S. Holmes 15 51
School of Economic,
Political and Policy Sciences,
University of Texas at Dallas,
800 West Campbell Rd,
Richardson, TX 75080-3021

Mary Caprioli 16 31
Department of Political Science,
302A CinaH
1123 University Dr,
University of Minnesota,
Duluth, MN 55812

Mohammed M. Hafez 11 25
Department of Political Science,
University of Missouri-Kansas City,
5100 Rockhill Road
Kansas City, MO 64110-2499

Gordon H. McCormick 15 21
Department of Defense Analysis,
Center on Terrorism and Irregular Warfare,
589 Dyer Rd., Code DA, Room 200a,
Naval Postgraduate School,
Monterey, CA 93943

Douglas A. Borer 6 9
Department of Defense Analysis,
Naval Postgraduate School,
1 University Circle
Monterey, CA 93943

Anke Hoeffler 16 7
Centre for the Study of African Economies,
Department of Economics,
University of Oxford,
Manor Road,
OX1 3UQ Oxford, UK

Lawrence D. Freedman 53 4
Department of War Studies,
King’s College,
London, Strand,
London WC2R 2LS UK

  • Note that this is the number of articles indexed in the Social SciSearch database, not a universal count of all the author’s writings.

2007 Threat #05 Civil War Top Books

Earth Threat #5: Civil War

A Listmania! list by Robert David STEELE Vivas (Oakton, VA United States)
(TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)
The list author says: “There are ten threats, twelve policies, and eight players other than the EU and USA that matter if we are to get a grip on our future. Each of these 30 topics is addressed at www.earth-intelligence.net, and in Amazon discussion groups being created to bring together authors and readers to form a global information sharing network that will be superior to what secret intelligence and secret government bureaucracies can put together. This is how we save Humanity and our Earth–by taking back the power over relevant information and the policies that have here-to-fore been dominated by special interests instead of ourselves, the taxpayers and end-users.”
Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Vol. 1--Africa
1.  Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Vol. 1–Africa by Paul Collier
The list author says:
“Great offering.”
$41.05   Used & New from: $18.25
Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Vol. 2--Europe, Central Asia, and Other Regions
2.  Understanding Civil War: Evidence and Analysis, Vol. 2–Europe, Central Asia, and Other Regions by Paul Collier
The list author says:
“Super”
$45.00   Used & New from: $4.25
Historical Dictionary of the Dirty Wars (Historical Dictionaries of War, Revolution, and Civil Unrest, No. 24)
3.  Historical Dictionary of the Dirty Wars (Historical Dictionaries of War, Revolution, and Civil Unrest, No. 24) by David R. Kohut
The list author says:
“Worthwhile.”
Used & New from: $86.75
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Internal wars: Rethinking problem and response (Studies in asymmetry)
4.  Internal wars: Rethinking problem and response (Studies in asymmetry) by Max G. Manwaring
The list author says:
“Max is the best is the world.  My own thesis on revolution can be found at www.oss.net, in Early Papers under my photo.”
Out of stock
The Nine Nations of North America
5.  The Nine Nations of North America by Joel Garreau
The list author says:
“Absolutely superb.  The USA might be better off as nine regions in a confederation, eschewing foreign conflict and most foreign trade.  There are 27 secessionist movements in the USA, for good reasons most.”
Used & New from: $2.05
4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (28 customer reviews)
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Waging War from Canada: Why Canada is the Perfect Base for Organizing, Supporting, and Conducting International Insurgency
6.  Waging War from Canada: Why Canada is the Perfect Base for Organizing, Supporting, and Conducting International Insurgency by Mike Pearson
The list author says:
“Canada is a PROBLEM for all of us.”
Used & New from: $3.79
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
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The Civil War For Dummies
7.  The Civil War For Dummies by Keith D. Dickson
The list author says:
“Useful”
Used & New from: $4.99
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
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The African Dream: The Diaries of the Revolutionary War in the Congo
8.  The African Dream: The Diaries of the Revolutionary War in the Congo by Ernesto Che Guevara
The list author says:
“Classic–the US continues to confuse communism and nationalism, capitalism and human rights.”
Used & New from: $2.02
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
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The Origins of the Angolan Civil War: Foreign Intervention and Domestic Political Conflict
9.  The Origins of the Angolan Civil War: Foreign Intervention and Domestic Political Conflict by Fernando Andresen Guimarães
The list author says:
“Angola…do you see a trend here: foreign intervention or foreign dismissal of legitimate concerns….”
$39.42   Used & New from: $22.85
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
The Algerian Civil War
10.  The Algerian Civil War by Luis Martínez
The list author says:
“Classic.”
$50.00   Used & New from: $33.94
3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
The Absence of Peace: Understanding the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
11.  The Absence of Peace: Understanding the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict by Nicholas Guyatt
The list author says:
“Helpful”
$27.95   Used & New from: $0.01
3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
The Logic of Violence in Civil War (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics)
12.  The Logic of Violence in Civil War (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics) by Stathis N. Kalyvas
The list author says:
“Worth studying.”
$29.85   Used & New from: $19.90
4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
All the Laws but One: Civil Liberties in Wartime
13.  All the Laws but One: Civil Liberties in Wartime by William H. Rehnquist
The list author says:
“Very important.”
$14.98   Used & New from: $1.20
3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (18 customer reviews)
Silence on the Mountain: Stories of Terror, Betrayal, and Forgetting in Guatemala (American Encounters/Global Interactions)
14.  Silence on the Mountain: Stories of Terror, Betrayal, and Forgetting in Guatemala (American Encounters/Global Interactions) by Daniel Wilkinson
The list author says:
“Guatemala”
$16.45   Used & New from: $5.00
4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (23 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics)
15.  Insurgent Collective Action and Civil War in El Salvador (Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics) by Elisabeth Jean Wood
The list author says:
“I was there.  This was about a handful of elite families, aided by a handful of extremist death squads, trying to put down a legitimate rebellion against everyone else being slaves.”
$29.13   Used & New from: $15.29
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
Guerrillas and Generals: The Dirty War in Argentina
16.  Guerrillas and Generals: The Dirty War in Argentina by Paul H. Lewis
The list author says:
“Argentina—torture and oppression make it worse, and ultimately cost the nation more.”
$33.60   Used & New from: $30.99
4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
Crisis in the Southwest: The United States, Mexico, and the Struggle over Texas (The American Crisis Series: Books on the Civil War Era)
17.  Crisis in the Southwest: The United States, Mexico, and the Struggle over Texas (The American Crisis Series: Books on the Civil War Era) by Richard Bruce Winders
The list author says:
“Most do not realize that the US provoked the war.”
$89.00   Used & New from: $32.85
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
Pombo: A Man of Che's Guerrilla, With Che Guevara in Bolivia 1966-68
18.  Pombo: A Man of Che’s Guerrilla, With Che Guevara in Bolivia 1966-68 by Pombo
The list author says:
“CIA tracked him down and killed him.  We love dictators and disdain populists.”
$17.94   Used & New from: $4.21
The Colombian Civil War
19.  The Colombian Civil War by Bert Ruiz
The list author says:
“Top book on Colombia.  Again, a wealthy and corrupt elite against its own people.”
$43.56   Used & New from: $8.32
4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (16 customer reviews)
Homage to Chiapas: The New Indigenous Struggles in Mexico
20.  Homage to Chiapas: The New Indigenous Struggles in Mexico by Bill Weinberg
The list author says:
“Mexico.”
$29.00   Used & New from: $0.50
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
Shining Path: Guerrilla War in Peru's Northern Highlands (Liverpool University Press - Liverpool Latin American Studies)
21.  Shining Path: Guerrilla War in Peru’s Northern Highlands (Liverpool University Press – Liverpool Latin American Studies) by Lewis Taylor
The list author says:
“Peru”
Used & New from: $30.00
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
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The Civil War in Nicaragua: Inside the Sandinistas
22.  The Civil War in Nicaragua: Inside the Sandinistas by Roger Miranda
The list author says:
“Somoza was a dictator and the US enforcer in the region.  He looted the nation, and when the earthquakes happened, stole the relief supplies, that that was the precipitating factor that set everyone off.  The preconditions has been there for a very long time.”
Used & New from: $16.00
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
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International Security and Democracy: Latin America and the Caribbean in the Post-Cold War Era (Pitt Latin American Studies)
23.  International Security and Democracy: Latin America and the Caribbean in the Post-Cold War Era (Pitt Latin American Studies) by Jorge I. Dominguez
The list author says:
“Great overview.  See also Smedley Butler’s “War is a Racket,” in which he speaks of how the Marine Corps was used as an enforcer for US banks.”
$27.95   Used & New from: $4.50
Military Crisis Management: U.S. Intervention in the Dominican Republic, 1965 (Contributions in Military Studies)
24.  Military Crisis Management: U.S. Intervention in the Dominican Republic, 1965 (Contributions in Military Studies) by Herbert Garrettson Schoonmaker
The list author says:
“Dominican Republic”
$65.00   Used & New from: $48.78
The Protection Racket State: Elite Politics, Military Extortion, and Civil War in El Salvador (Political Science/Latin America Studies)
25.  The Protection Racket State: Elite Politics, Military Extortion, and Civil War in El Salvador (Political Science/Latin America Studies) by William Deane Stanley
The list author says:
“Useful insights into El Salvador.”
$88.50   Used & New from: $88.47
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End
26.  Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End by Roy Licklider
The list author says:
“Excellent, helpful.”
$25.00   Used & New from: $2.99
5.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (1 customer review)
At War's End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict
27.  At War’s End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict by Roland Paris
The list author says:
“Useful”
$26.26   Used & New from: $7.94
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
Yugoslavia's Bloody Collapse: Causes, Course and Consequences
28.  Yugoslavia’s Bloody Collapse: Causes, Course and Consequences by Christopher Bennett
The list author says:
“Yugoslavia”
$25.00   Used & New from: $0.01
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
The Black Book Of Bosnia: The Consequences Of Appeasement (A New Republic Book)
29.  The Black Book Of Bosnia: The Consequences Of Appeasement (A New Republic Book) by Nader Mousavizadeh
The list author says:
“There is a big difference between appeasement and legitimate dialog.”
$16.00   Used & New from: $0.01
2.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
Prejudice, War and the Constitution: Causes and Consequences of the Evacuation of the Japanese Americans in World War II
30.  Prejudice, War and the Constitution: Causes and Consequences of the Evacuation of the Japanese Americans in World War II by Jacobus TenBroek
The list author says:
“I like this.  There are good and bad ways for dealing with communities (e.g. the Muslim communities in the US).”
$31.95   Used & New from: $2.00
The Yemeni war of 1994: causes and consequences (Middle East Studies)
31.  The Yemeni war of 1994: causes and consequences (Middle East Studies) by Jamal S. Al-Suwaidi Editor)
The list author says:
“Yemen”
Used & New from: $1.29
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(Tamil) Tigers and the lion: the evolution of Sri Lanka's civil war.: An article from: Harvard International Review
32.  (Tamil) Tigers and the lion: the evolution of Sri Lanka’s civil war.: An article from: Harvard International Review by Robert C. Oberst
The list author says:
“Sri Lanka–it merits comment that there are over 175 internal wars going on at any one time.  India has 36 of them!”
$5.95
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The Coming Civil War in India
33.  The Coming Civil War in India by Sita Ram Sharma
The list author says:
“Worthy of study.”
Used & New from: $28.06
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Internal War: Problems and Approaches
34.  Internal War: Problems and Approaches by Harry Eckstein
The list author says:
“One of the masters of the topic.”
$105.00   Used & New from: $29.88
Governance and Internal Wars in sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the Relationship
35.  Governance and Internal Wars in sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the Relationship by Abdulahi A Osman
The list author says:
“Africa again”
$25.00

2007 Threat #05 Civil War Top Centers

EIN Starting Points/Rank

Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolutionexternal link
Harvard University – Analyzes the causes of ethnic, religious, and other intercommunal conflict, and seeks to identify practical ways to prevent and limit such conflict. It is concerned with the vulnerability of weak states, with good governance, with methods of moderating the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, with peace building and peace enforcement capabilities in Africa, and with the role of truth commissions in conflict prevention and conflict resolution. 1

Power and Interest News Reportexternal link
PINR is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. Site includes current news, reports by region and archives, and offers consulting services. 2

Economics of Conflictexternal link
World Bank – conflict research at the World Bank is on the cutting edge of economic research on the subject. The major contributions of the Bank’s research began with the first research project, the Economics of Civil War, Crime and Violence and continue today with the second project, Post-Conflict Transitions. Included on the site is the ongoing research of the Post-Conflict Transitions project a synopsis of the Economics of Civil War project. 3

Minority Rights Group Internationalexternal link
Works to secure the rights of ethnic, religious and linguistic minorities and indigenous peoples worldwide, and to promote cooperation and understanding between communities. MRG strives to promote the active participation of minorities and indigenous peoples in decisions affecting their lives; to secure the implementation of international standards; advance conflict resolution and reconciliation initiatives; advocate the need for the integration of minority rights into development policies. 4

International Center on Nonviolent Conflictexternal link
An independent, non-profit, educational foundation that develops and encourages the study and use of civilian-based, nonmilitary strategies to establish and defend human rights, democracy and justice worldwide. 5

Children and Armed Conflict Unitexternal link
University of Essex – works around the world to improve the situation for civilian children caught up in armed conflict and civil unrest and for those emerging from years of violence. The restoration of civil society following armed conflict provides an opportunity to ensure systems and structures are in place that fully implement children’s rights. 6

Kreddha, International Peace Council for States, Peoples and Minoritiesexternal link
A non-profit organization dedicated to the prevention and resolution of violent conflicts between population groups and the states within which they exist. Where peace has been initiated, Kreddha helps to consolidate it. The organization exists to facilitate and empower state governments and the leadership of population groups world wide to create the conditions for diverse communities to live in peace in an environment where they can actively participate in a society, state and region to which they belong. Kreddha specializes in and limits its activities to intrastate conflicts. 7

Human Security Gatewayexternal link
Canadian-based research and information database regrouping electronic and bibliographic resources on human security. Topics include armies, paramilitaries and non-state armed groups, peace operations and post-conflict reconstruction and refugees and internally displaced people. 8

Peace Pledge Unionexternal link
Contains interactive map of major wars and armed conflicts, by region, since 1945. 9

ReliefWebexternal link
UN OCHA site – Disseminates timely, reliable and relevant humanitarian information by updating its web site around the clock. Posts some 150 maps and documents daily from over 2,000 source from the UN system, governments, NGOs, academia and the media. Map Centre also creates original ReliefWeb maps. 10

South African Regional Poverty Networkexternal link
A non-profit organisation that promotes debate and knowledge sharing on poverty reduction processes and experiences in Southern Africa. Regional themes include human security and migration. 11

Tibetan Center for Conflict Resolutionexternal link
A registered, non-profit, educational organisation dedicated to the non-violent management of conflicts in the Tibetan Community and the world as a whole. Based in Dharamshala, India. 12

United Nations Peacekeepingexternal link
Lists current and past operations, news centre, facts & figures and what’s new. 13

NATOexternal link
Topics include past and present missions, and partnerships. 14

Parliamentarians for Global Actionexternal link
A unique network of over 1300 legislators from 114 parliaments engaged in a range of action-oriented initiatives that promote democracy, peace, justice and development throughout the world. 15

South Asia Terrorism Portal-Wars Within Bordersexternal link
Occasional Writings on Sub-Conventional Conflicts – Articles from a variety of publications on conflict in India, Pakistan, and other South Asian nations. 16

2007 Threat #05 Civil War Forecast

PDF:  05 Civil War

THREAT:  Civil War

And I will give unto thee, and to thy seed after thee, the land wherein thou art a stranger, all the land of Canaan, for an everlasting possession; and I will be their God.  Genesis 17:8

Civil war is defined by what it is not – not war between fielded forces of nation states. Because there is often no “army” to be defeated, internecine inconclusive lethality can continue for decades, even centuries. Similarly, insurgency is defined as not civil war but it is just a matter of degree. Insurgencies can be victorious; the Long March of the Communist forces in China, or the uprising by American merchants against good King George.

The longest running civil war today is said to be the struggle since 1948 by the Karen in Myanmar (Burma) but the Philippines (1960s), Thailand (1960s), Somalia (1977), Sri Lanka (1983) are just some of the other conflicts that extend over decades. But this Guinness book of records approach misses a crucial point. The southern Thailand conflict actually arises in Siamese annexation of an Islamic Sultanate in the 16th century; the Moro (“Moor”) insurgency in the southern Philippines originates in the Spanish conquest of 1571. The Troubles in Northern Ireland date to victory by William over James II at the Boyne in 1690. Deep rifts in the Balkans date to when and where the Ottomans were halted in the 15th century.

What may be civil war in all but name may be called an insurgency or terrorism for rhetorical reasons as with present-day Iraq, invented in 1932 when Whitehall sought to unite three Ottoman provinces (Mosul, Baghdad and Basra) into a new impossible entity.
Foreign intervention in civil wars is a gamble and the US had a run of bad luck – backing the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Shah in Iran, Iraq against Iran — a geopolitical three-in-a-row loss. This points to intrinsic dangers of taking sides in “local” conflicts, or systematic short-sightedness in US foreign policy. Intervention such as this often escalates into a proxy war.

As the roots of civil wars and insurgencies are often very deep — like a village feud in Calabria — the origins are so distant that which party is clearly “right” or “wrong” is meaningless. The cycle of violence can only be solved with adult supervision and the only legitimate “adult supervision” at present – apart from some land-giving God – is the United Nations and International Courts.

Near-Term:

A jury of the world will find few civil wars or insurgencies to have a clear good guy or bad guy. Any genuine interest in solving a conflict requires a juristically neutral appreciation of the harms, the claims and the logically possible judgements.
As with civil society, conflict that disrupts the public order – “world peace” — can only be effectively resolved in the context of rule-of-law. Nation states unable to solve conflict must – in the broader interest — surrender to international juristic solutions.

Mid-Term:

There is an array of conflict-resolution methods starting from the proposition that most conflicts – with wisdom and effort – can be transformed from a zero-sum game into rational new arrangements that maximize each side’s needs. Failure to understand that arises from the primitive reptilian brain; curable in most cases.  The “jury of the world” will readily see what is just in the case of most disputes if the logical alternatives – often a complex of rights and duties – is derived from the true origins of the conflict.

Long-Term:

The UN is the worst form of conflict resolution except all the others that have been tried*.  The veto-based Security Council ensures that any civil war soon becomes a proxy war, in principle if not in reality – a race for “our side” to win rather than the conflict be justly resolved. Any use of the UN’s palpable powers is thwarted or perverted.  Any effective system for global intervention and solution of civil wars necessarily depends on retirement of the veto power.
*pace Churchill on democracy