Category Archives: 04 Inter-State Conflict

2007 Threat #04 Inter-State Conflict Top Cited Authors

Published Experts as of March 2007 (Articles/Citations)

William J. Dixon 53 5452
Department of Political Science,
Box 210027,
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721

Bruce M. Russett 90 1533
Political Science Department,
Yale University,
PO Box 208301,
New Haven, CT 06520-8301

William R. Thompson 100 1221
Department of Political Science,
Woodburn Hall,
107 S. Indiana Ave.,
Bloomington, IN 47405-700

Patrick James 142 695
School of International Relations,
University of Southern California,
Los Angeles , CA 90089

Glenn H. Palmer 59 606
Department of Political Science,
Pennsylvania State University,
203 Pond Laboratories,
University Park,
State College, PA

James L. Ray 52 499
Department of Political Science,
Vanderbilt University,
Nashville, TN 37235

John A. Vasquez 45 479
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,
361 Lincoln Hall,
702 S Wright St., MC 452,
Urbana, IL 61801

Quan Li 139 471
Department of Political Science,
Pennsylvania State University,
203 Pond Laboratories,
University Park,
State College, PA

John R. Oneal 40 454
Department of Political Science,
University of Alabama,
Tuscaloosa, AL 35487

Nils Petter Gleditsch 184 450
Department of Economics and Department of Sociology and Political Science,
Norwegian University of Science and Technology and
Centre for the Study of Civil War,
International Peace Research Institute,
Oslo, Norway

Paul K. Huth 17 305
Department of Government & Politics,
University of Maryland,
3140 Tydings Hall,
College Park, MD 20742

David H. Clark 30 286
Political Science Department,
Binghamton University,
PO Box 6000,
Binghamton, NY 13902-6000

Patrick M. Regan 48 208
Department of Political Science,
Binghamton University,
PO Box 6000,
Binghamton, NY 13902-6000

Erik A. Gartzke 29 202
Department of Political Science,
International Affairs Building, Rm. 1329,
420 W. 118th. St.,
New York, NY 10027

Håvard Hegre 23 182
Department of Political Science
University of Oslo, Norway, Centre for the Study of Civil War
International Peace Research Institute,
Oslo, Norway

Scott S. Gartner 22 130
Political Science Department,
265 SS&H,
University of California,
Davis, CA 95616

Sara M. Mitchell 26 113
307 Schaeffer Hall,
Department of Political Science,
University of Iowa,
Iowa City, IA 52242

Mark J. C. Crescenzi 8 43
Department of Political Science,
University of North Carolina,
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3265

Jaroslav Tir 12 33
School of Public and International Affairs,
325 Candler Hall
University of Georgia,
Athens, GA 30602

Mary Caprioli 16 31
Department of Political Science,
302A CinaH
1123 University Dr,
University of Minnesota,
Duluth, MN 55812

Seung-Whan Choi 13 22
Department of Political Science,
University of Illinois at Chicago,
1122B BSB, MC 276,
1007 W. Harrison
Chicago IL 60607

Peter F. Trumbore 8 18
Department of Political Science,
Oakland University,
2200 N. Squirrel Road
Rochester, MI 48309-4401

  • Note that this is the number of articles indexed in the Social SciSearch database, not a universal count of all the author’s writings.

2007 Threat #04 Inter-State Conflict Top Books

Earth Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict

A Listmania! list by Robert David STEELE Vivas (Oakton, VA United States)
(TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (HALL OF FAME REVIEWER)
The list author says: “There are ten threats, twelve policies, and eight players other than the EU and USA that matter if we are to get a grip on our future. Each of these 30 topics is addressed at www.earth-intelligence.net, and in Amazon discussion groups being created to bring together authors and readers to form a global information sharing network that will be superior to what secret intelligence and secret government bureaucracies can put together. This is how we save Humanity and our Earth–by taking back the power over relevant information and the policies that have here-to-fore been dominated by special interests instead of ourselves, the taxpayers and end-users.”
Modern Strategy
1.  Modern Strategy by Colin S. Gray
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  War is supposed to be politics by other means, but Strategy is what determines the ends, ways, and means.  There are many other books that could have been included in this list.  Do not go to war unless you a) have a strategy that is morally just and financially sustainable.”
$49.31   Used & New from: $28.00
4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
The Fifty-Year Wound: How America's Cold War Victory Has Shaped Our World
2.  The Fifty-Year Wound: How America’s Cold War Victory Has Shaped Our World by Derek Leebaert
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  This is the definitive condemnation of the Cold War as largely inspired by the USA and a complete waste of blood, treasure, and spirit.”
$16.95   Used & New from: $0.01
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (15 customer reviews)
Wilson's Ghost: Reducing The Risk Of Conflict, Killing, And Catastrophe In The 21st Century
3.  Wilson’s Ghost: Reducing The Risk Of Conflict, Killing, And Catastrophe In The 21st Century by Robert S. McNamara
The list author says:
“Vital Contribution.  Could also be listed in Diplomacy.  See my longer review.”
$15.00   Used & New from: $0.01
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (14 customer reviews)
Why We Fight
4.  Why We Fight DVD ~ Gore Vidal
The list author says:
“Shocking–not what you would expect.  See especially how the military-industrial complex fosters poverty to increase young male unemployment so as to enable recruitment into the military.”
$8.49   Used & New from: $1.74
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (184 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara
5.  The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara DVD ~ Robert McNamara
The list author says:
“See my longer review for the list of lessons.  Utterly absorbing and worthy.”
$8.49   Used & New from: $4.39
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (276 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
War is a Racket: The Antiwar Classic by America's Most Decorated Soldier
6.  War is a Racket: The Antiwar Classic by America’s Most Decorated Soldier by Smedley D. Butler
The list author says:
“This should be required reading for every officer in the military.”
$9.95   Used & New from: $4.00
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (154 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
The Price of Liberty: Paying for America's Wars
7.  The Price of Liberty: Paying for America’s Wars by Robert D. Hormats
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  A very important and helpful book.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
See buying options
Waging Peace: The Art of War for the Antiwar Movement
8.  Waging Peace: The Art of War for the Antiwar Movement by Scott Ritter
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  He not only gets it, he explains it in a manner useful to all of us.”
$13.95   Used & New from: $0.01
4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (8 customer reviews)
The Art of War
9.  The Art of War by Thomas Cleary
The list author says:
“This book is known to every politican and general, but the part they ignore is where he says “the acme of skill is to defeat the enemy without fighting.””
$7.99   Used & New from: $0.01
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (92 customer reviews)
On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society
10.  On Killing: The Psychological Cost of Learning to Kill in War and Society by Dave Grossman
The list author says:
“Very serious.  And we  are training terrorists and gang members without realizing it.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (303 customer reviews)
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Peace After War: On Conditions for Durable Inter-State Boundary Agreements (Uppsala University Department of Peace & Conflict Research, Report No. 34)
11.  Peace After War: On Conditions for Durable Inter-State Boundary Agreements (Uppsala University Department of Peace & Conflict Research, Report No. 34) by Kjell-Ake Nordquist
The list author says:
“Very important work.  The colonial era’s greatest crimes, apart from looting and slavery, were the imposition of political boundaries of convenience totally divorced from centuries of ethnic “natural” boundaries long accepted.”
$36.50
American Fascists: The Christian Right and the War On America
12.  American Fascists: The Christian Right and the War On America by Chris Hedges
The list author says:
“See my longer review. This is the first author to dare to use the correct word to describe the extremists on the right in America.  They have caused such misbehavior abroad “in our name” that we are now less safe than we were during the Cold War.”
Used & New from: $0.01
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (228 customer reviews) | 11 customer discussions
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The 33 Strategies of War
13.  The 33 Strategies of War by Robert Greene
The list author says:
“Intriguing–could not find a book on the 33 strategies of peace.”
$17.13   Used & New from: $8.76
4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (106 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
Failed States: The Abuse of Power and the Assault on Democracy
14.  Failed States: The Abuse of Power and the Assault on Democracy by Noam Chomsky
The list author says:
“Nails it.  Chomsky is a patriot speaking truth we need to respect.”
$11.56   Used & New from: $1.25
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (108 customer reviews) | 2 customer discussions
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, & Power
15.  The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, & Power by Daniel Yergin
The list author says:
“An original.  See also Michael Klare’s books on blood for oil.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (217 customer reviews)
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Fateful Choices: Ten Decisions That Changed the World, 1940-1941
16.  Fateful Choices: Ten Decisions That Changed the World, 1940-1941 by Ian Kershaw
The list author says:
“Extremely interesting.  Decisions have consequences.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (36 customer reviews)
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The Truth War: Fighting for Certainty in an Age of Deception
17.  The Truth War: Fighting for Certainty in an Age of Deception by John F. MacArthur
The list author says:
“This is the greatest war of all.  See also Fog Facts, Lost History (Perry), Weaponos of Mass Deception, etcetera.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (93 customer reviews) | 4 customer discussions
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A Savage War of Peace: Algeria 1954-1962 (New York Review Books Classics)
18.  A Savage War of Peace: Algeria 1954-1962 (New York Review Books Classics) by Alistair Horne
The list author says:
“It has been my experience, in both Viet-Nam and in El Salvador, that if we simply behave and do not invade or support dictators, ultimately the proper balance is achieved by the society on its own, in its own time.  France simply did not want to give up their choke hold.”
$13.57   Used & New from: $4.16
4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (65 customer reviews)
Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, and the Selling of the Iraq War
19.  Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, and the Selling of the Iraq War by Michael Isikoff
The list author says:
“Wars are generally NOT called for, and are “sold” so that arms merchants and their corrupt political cronies can make fortunes on the backs and bodies of the 90% of society that works and bleeds.”
$10.17   Used & New from: $8.47
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (87 customer reviews) | 4 customer discussions
War on the Middle Class: How the Government, Big Business, and Special Interest Groups Are Waging War on the American Dream and How to Fight Back
20.  War on the Middle Class: How the Government, Big Business, and Special Interest Groups Are Waging War on the American Dream and How to Fight Back by Lou Dobbs
The list author says:
“A different kind of war, the kind that makes blood wars possible.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (112 customer reviews) | 2 customer discussions
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Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World's Greatest Outlaw
21.  Killing Pablo: The Hunt for the World’s Greatest Outlaw by Mark Bowden
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  I include this to make the point that America is incompetent at one man – one bullet.”
$10.52   Used & New from: $0.01
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (249 customer reviews)
Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror
22.  Licensed to Kill: Hired Guns in the War on Terror by Robert Young Pelton
The list author says:
“Great book, see my longer review.  Private armies are a perversion, and as Ralph Peters says, we are outsourcing our honor.”
Used & New from: $1.04
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (61 customer reviews) | 2 customer discussions
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Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam
23.  Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam by John A. Nagl
The list author says:
“One of the better books on counter-insurgency.”
$11.56   Used & New from: $4.00
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (57 customer reviews)
See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism
24.  See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA’s War on Terrorism by Robert Baer
The list author says:
“US support for Saudi Royal corruption and debauchery.”
$10.88   Used & New from: $0.01
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (243 customer reviews) | 2 customer discussions
The Greatest Generation
25.  The Greatest Generation by Tom Brokaw
The list author says:
“I like this, and Studs Terkle, because WWII was “the good war” even though revisionists are documenting the unhealthy US fondness for Hitler and his anti-communist facsism.”
$11.56   Used & New from: $0.01
3.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (533 customer reviews)
The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West
26.  The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West by Niall Ferguson
The list author says:
“Provocative!”
Used & New from: $0.01
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (78 customer reviews)
See buying options
Interventions (City Lights Open Media)
27.  Interventions (City Lights Open Media) by Noam Chomsky
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  A very important book for Americans who want to understand why everyone is mad at us.”
$11.35   Used & New from: $0.01
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (17 customer reviews)
Pathologies of Power: Health, Human Rights, and the New War on the Poor (California Series in Public Anthropology)
28.  Pathologies of Power: Health, Human Rights, and the New War on the Poor (California Series in Public Anthropology) by Paul Farmer
The list author says:
“Another kind of war but I wanted to get this in here.  We are making war on our own people (see Working Poor, Nickled and Dimed).”
$16.10   Used & New from: $6.82
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (31 customer reviews)
Screwed: The Undeclared War Against the Middle Class - And What We Can Do about It (BK Currents (Paperback))
29.  Screwed: The Undeclared War Against the Middle Class – And What We Can Do about It (BK Currents (Paperback)) by Thom Hartmann
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  I want to expand the concept of war and show how war is anything evil that attacks the basic goodness and health of humanity and society.”
$11.96   Used & New from: $0.01
4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (95 customer reviews)
Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror
30.  Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror by Michael Scheuer
The list author says:
“An important book I include in other lists.”
$13.69   Used & New from: $0.01
4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (188 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
The Cold War: A New History
31.  The Cold War: A New History by John Lewis Gaddis
The list author says:
“Worth reading but see also The Fifty Year Wound and Sorrows of Empire.”
$11.56   Used & New from: $4.78
4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (99 customer reviews)
The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World
32.  The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World by Rupert Smith
The list author says:
“Worthy of study.”
Used & New from: $0.01
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (32 customer reviews)
See buying options
Seven Pillars of Wisdom: A Triumph
33.  Seven Pillars of Wisdom: A Triumph by T. E. Lawrence
The list author says:
“I have an original copy, one of the finest works of all time.”
$15.47   Used & New from: $0.01
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (124 customer reviews)
A Brilliant Solution: Inventing the American Constitution
34.  A Brilliant Solution: Inventing the American Constitution by Carol Berkin
The list author says:
“Sadly, the Constitution only works to prevent illegal and elective wars when the Congress does its job, and the Senate in particular.  See Broken Branch and Breach of Trust.”
$11.64   Used & New from: $0.01
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (29 customer reviews)
Tactics of the Crescent Moon: Militant Muslim Combat Methods
35.  Tactics of the Crescent Moon: Militant Muslim Combat Methods by H. John Poole
The list author says:
“I like all of John Poole’s work.  See my longer reviews.”
$10.18   Used & New from: $1.83
4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (43 customer reviews)
Betraying Our Troops: The Destructive Results of Privatizing War
36.  Betraying Our Troops: The Destructive Results of Privatizing War by Dina Rasor
The list author says:
“I agree with this.  For several months early on in Iraq some units were only receiving one C-Ration a day, and running out of water.”
Used & New from: $0.01
3.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (16 customer reviews)
See buying options
Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War
37.  Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War by Robert Coram
The list author says:
“See my longer review.  Essential reading for officers and non-commissioned officers.  However, we need  a Goldwater Nichols Act for inter-agency *and* coalition operations.”
$12.23   Used & New from: $1.90
4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (151 customer reviews) | 1 customer discussion
Sacred Causes: The Clash of Religion and Politics, from the Great War to the War on Terror
38.  Sacred Causes: The Clash of Religion and Politics, from the Great War to the War on Terror by Michael Burleigh
The list author says:
“Helpful.  The problem is how one defines and shapes sacred.  The Pat Robertson 700 Club and the Bible thumpers funding the perfect red calf are no more sacred than the nearest whorehouse.”
$27.95   Used & New from: $0.05
3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (17 customer reviews)
First In: An Insider's Account of How the CIA Spearheaded the War on Terror in Afghanistan
39.  First In: An Insider’s Account of How the CIA Spearheaded the War on Terror in Afghanistan by Gary C. Schroen
The list author says:
“I like this book because in many ways it describes the perfect war plan–CIA and Speecial Operations using technology to guide Air Force strikes in support of legitimate indigenous forces.”
$7.23   Used & New from: $0.01
4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (65 customer reviews)

2007 Threat #04 Inter-State Conflict Top Centers

EIN Starting Points/Rank

Israeli-Palestinian ProCon.orgexternal link
This site presents in a simple, nonpartisan pro-con format, responses to the core question “What are the solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?” Includes maps, historical timelines, documents and statistics about the conflict. 1

Project on Defense Alternatives – War Reportexternal link
Regularly updated site with select articles, documents, and analyses on Iraq and Afghanistan. Also contains archived information on wars in both nations. 2

Institute of Peace and Conflict Studiesexternal link
An India-based independent think tank devoted to studying security issues relating to South Asia. Covers Indo-Pak relations, Kashmir and Jammu developments, China’s influence in the region and nuclear issues. 3

AllAFrica.com – Conflict, Peace and Securityexternal link
Aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. The Conflict, Peace and Security section includes Top News and Latest News in the region. 4

EU & The Middle East Peace Processexternal link
EU position on the Middle East peace process; support to the process; EU relations with Israel and the Palestinians; and What’s New. 5

Waternetexternal link
Focuses on the challenge of politics and policies with regard to development and potential conflict in water scarce environments in the Middle East. Information is organised on three main topics: the impact of water on politics in the Jordan river basin, a broader view on water issues in the Middle East and more general international aspects of water resources and policies. 6

International Crisis Groupexternal link
Crisis Group is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, it produces analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers. 7

UNEP – Post Conflict Branchexternal link
Extends UNEP’s work in areas of the world where the natural and human environment has been damaged as a direct or indirect consequence of conflict. PCoB conducts environmental assessments in post-conflict countries and strengthens national environmental management capacity through institution building, promoting regional cooperation, technical legal assistance, environmental information management and integrating environmental concerns in reconstruction programmes. 8

[GlobalSecurity.org – Militaryexternal link
Includes information on current operations, conflicts, news, hot topics and world military guides by country. U.S.-based Global Security provides background information and developing news stories in the fields of defense, space, intelligence, WMD, and homeland security. 9

WomenWarPeace.orgexternal link
A U.N. portal on women, peace and security intended to address the lack of consolidated data on the impact of armed conflict on women and girls as noted by Security Council resolution 1325 (2000). This portal is meant to serve as a centralized repository of information from a wide variety of sources, with links to reports and data from the UN system to information and analysis from experts, academics, NGOs and media sources. 10

World Peace Heraldexternal link
Seeks to provide readers with access to news and views not often found in the traditional media, with a particular focus on issues that relate to building world peace. Our view is global, and recognizes the interdependence of the world’s nations. As such, World Peace Herald reports news that cuts across the boundaries of religion, politics and culture, while also recognizing the efforts of peacemakers around the world. 11

Conflict Resolution Conferences Worldwideexternal link
Provides schedules and details of upcoming events in peace studies, conflict resolution and related fields. Also has links to Journal of Peace Research. 12

Institute for War and Peace Reportingexternal link
IWPR programs provide intensive hands-on training, extensive reporting and publishing, and ambitious initiatives to build the capacity of local media. Supporting peace-building, development and the rule of law, IWPR gives responsible local media a voice. 13

Antiwar.comexternal link
Antiwar news, viewpoints and activities. In addition to Iraq, includes news on Asia, South Asia, Africa and Europe. 14

INCOREexternal link
International Conflict Research is a joint project of the United Nations University and the University of Ulster. Combining research, education and comparative analysis, INCORE addresses the causes and consequences of conflict in Northern Ireland and internationally and promotes conflict resolution management strategies. It aims to influence policymakers and practitioners involved in peace, conflict and reconciliation issues while enhancing the nature of international conflict research. 15

HistoryGuy.comexternal link
A Resource on Military History, World Conflicts, American Politics, and Biography. 16

2007 Threat #04 Inter-State Conflict Forecast

PDF:  04 Inter-State Conflict

THREAT:  Inter-State Conflict

War is not an independent phenomenon, but the continuation of politics by different means.  – Vom Kriege (1832), General Carl von Clausewitz (1780-1831)

Although the US has not declared war since the World War II, it has been involved in several dozen war-like circumstances occasioning the death of soldiers and others. These range from the UN Police Action in Korea (1950+), to Military Assistance in Vietnam (1961–72), to All Necessary Means under UN Security Council Resolution 678 (UNSCR 678) in Iraq (1991), to the present Iraq liberation (2003+) based in UNSCR 687, the cease-fire conditions for the 1991 action.

Because very few profit from war, it is often bad press to start one. This may explain the few wars but very many police actions, military operations, pre-emptive strikes and responses to something the enemy did. Also – to use scurrilous logic — if war is not declared it can not be lost, there can be no war crimes, no blame for starting a war (which is against international law), no obligation to obey rules of war, or rules for treatment of combatants, or rules for the protection of Cultural Property under the Hague Convention (1899). Not calling a war “war” also circumvents constitutional and legal constraints on Declaration of War. In the US, only Congress has power to “declare War”. Whether this means Congress alone has power to approve war-like actions has not been tested in the Supreme Court.

Clausewitz says war is a complex interplay of a three elements – the goals of government, the sentiments of the population, and the intrinsic uncertainty of warfare itself. A war may start with popular support and then lose it; government imperatives may change during the war, an unbeatable army may be defeated by a trick, or the weather, or by the enemy general. This trinity of war – Government, Population, Military – seems to work well for any of the euphemisms for war and for other actions counter-posed to war such as civil war and insurgency where two or more political wills, populations, and armed groups are in conflict. But war is not going to get any easier. In future there may be fewer howitzers but a grinding globalised antipathy lasting decades, routine sabotage of home and foreign assets and infrastructure, and the occasional devastating 9/11 type of incident – the sort of continuing social unease that renders fielded forces, and some of Clausewitz, useless.

The euphemism of politics has largely done away with War – we may now be in for a century or two of something worse.

Near-Term:

Iraq (and Somalia) remind us there is also politics and a population on the other side. A military may be defeated but is rarely possible to defeat a population. Recent events prove that war is foolish without clear, achievable goals, a supportive population, and a military up to that specific task.  One of the prime causes of War are previous wars. War whether won or lost is a bell that can’t be unrung, a 12 month war can bring 12 generations of enmity. As General Colin Powell said “If you break it: you own it.”

Mid-Term:

Wars go very wrong through failure to appreciate the full cultural, political and military picture. It is even more crucial to understand this if today’s wars are grinding cultural antipathy with little to shoot at – an eternal urban insurgency.  Effective and flexible military prowess will be as important as ever but more important will be broad-based global monitoring, political and cultural analysis, and scenario development – all of a quality not yet seen. But this quality Peace-keeping will still be cheaper than war.

Long-Term:

As Clausewitz says, war is not an independent phenomenon. In war-time the generals take control of all the khaki bits, but a society that is not mobilized for peace will need to fight unnecessary wars.  All nations will need to marshal their best resources (largely knowledge-based) for success in both peace and war. In comprehending and managing the threats to peace – Poverty, Civil War, Water Wars, … — all military and civil intelligence must be harnessed toward the national and global good.